Nuclear's Biggest Boom

Ken Silverstein | Sep 22, 2010

 

The energy crisis of the 1970s never did pass. It's still here, although today it centers on feeding an ever-growing global population with cleaner fuels.

Ingenuity abounds, coming in the form of greener energy and new pollution controls. One such power source to make headway is nuclear fission, which has never gone anywhere but which has suffered more setbacks than any other. One country, though, never lost its trust in nuclear power: France, which generates three-quarters of its electricity from it.

France's critical decision to move forward with nuclear energy in a big way in the 1970s remains its foremost pivotal energy decision. Today, its 57 nuclear plants are safe, productive and clean - all at a time when its neighbors on the continent as well its friends in the United States are struggling to minimize the use of coal-fired power.

Global energy consumption is expected to rise by 60 percent over the next two decades -- a product of industrialization and population growth, particularly in China and India. The issue is compounded as more than three-fourths of the world's energy is produced by burning fossil fuels.

As a greater emphasis is placed on limiting greenhouse gases associated with such combustion, there's now a need to come up with environmentally benign technologies. Nuclear energy, which has been waiting on the sidelines for about 30 years, now comprises 16 percent of the global energy mix. But the International Atomic Energy Agency is predicting that it will generate 27 percent of all worldwide energy by 2030.

Most of that development will take place in the Asian nations, particularly India and China. Both countries have a multitude of nuclear projects underway. But Europe, too, might do the same; it is obligated to reduce its carbon emissions under international climate treaties and it is therefore looking to nuclear energy to pitch in.

The United States is also on a similar track. The Nuclear Energy Institute is predicting 4 to 8 reactors to be built by 2020 -- and about 45 of them by 2030. At present, there are 13 applications for 22 reactors now pending with federal regulators. That is compared to the one or two applications that were pending five years ago.

Altogether, nuclear power makes up 44 percent of the generation mix in Sweden, 39 percent in Switzerland, 22 percent in Germany, 28 percent in Japan, 23 percent in the United Kingdom and 20 percent in the United States. About 440 nuclear power plants exist worldwide while the Atomic Energy Agency says that at least 32 nuclear power plants are under construction.

"If we are going to have a carbon-free atmosphere and reduce carbon intensity, the quickest way to do so is bring nuclear on line," says Glenn McCullough, the former chair of the Tennessee Valley Authority, who had earlier spoken with this writer.

Germany's Dilemma

Germany, perhaps, agonizes more than others over this issue. It has placed green energy front and center in its path toward energy independence and environmental awareness. But such power at present constitutes a relatively small share of its electricity portfolio.

Wind and solar energy make up about 6.5 percent and 1 percent of its overall generation, respectively, says the GSW Strategy Group. Nuclear, by contrast, produces almost four-times more electricity there.

The near-term solution is to extend the life of the nuclear generators another 20 years, or enough time to stand the nation's green energy industry on its legs so that it can "take over" from there. "The problem is that the incremental growth in renewable electricity required to replace all of these plants does not seem feasible within that timeframe, despite its impressive expansion so far," says GSW's Managing Director Geoffrey Styles, in a blog he has written. 

Germans, like all others, are concerned about the safety and cost of nuclear power. A lot has transpired since nuclear's "demise" in the late 1970s. And a lot more can happen over the next 20 years. The safety record during the last two decades has been exemplary while future nuclear plants are expected to be even more sophisticated.

As they come on line, the global community will be able to witness first-hand whether the facilities operate as promised - and whether they can be economically constructed.
As electrification takes root around the world, all countries will face a choice as to what role nuclear energy will play in their economies.

Those pending decisions have forced negotiators at the most recent climate change conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 to remove any exclusion on nuclear power. That means that countries can include nuclear power in their mitigation plans, however, no firm plans can be made unless a final agreement is realized. The next steps are for countries to meet in Bonn, Germany in June and in Mexico City at the end of 2010.

"We are more and more dependent on oil and gas imported from unstable parts of the world at a high price," says Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, at an earlier European Nuclear Energy Forum. "We have come to a time today where we must do more than talk about nuclear energy. It is really five minutes to midnight."

The 1970s marked the start of the first energy crisis. The new century broke the dawn of a new era - one that is focused on reducing emissions and becoming energy independent. France read the tea leaves in the 1970s. Now, the rest of the world is weighing its options.

So what do you think? Please share your thoughts by posting a quick comment below, or by sending me a longer reply to energybizinsider@energycentral.com.

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