Fracking: Get the Science Out
Natural gas could win the hunt for market share when it comes firing up electric generators. But is that wise?
The sudden change in dynamics comes about because of the newer technologies available to ply shale-gas from a mile beneath the surface. As a result, America's energy portrait has literally changed in the last few years.
The main obstacle is the issue of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. That is the process by which the drillers extract the shale -- by pumping water, sand and a concoction of chemicals deep underground to split the gas from the rocks where it is embedded. But critics say that it does not just pollute the water. It also requires too much water, which is in short supply.
“When it is done right, fracking is environmentally benign,” says Frank Yoho, an executive with Piedmont Natural Gas, in an interview with this writer after the Energy Inc. conference in Charlotte. “It needs to be understood.”
Yoho goes on to say that the lack of public awareness falls squarely on the shoulders of the exploration and production sector. It has always considered its drilling techniques to be proprietary. But times are different. The newly accessible shale supplies are a game-changer for the industry as a whole.
The Obama administration would like to see natural gas make headway in electricity markets. That's because it releases half the carbon as coal. At the same time, the White House agrees with Congress that the drilling process could sucker punch the whole shale industry. That's why the administration endorses a voluntary approach to disclosing what fluids are used while fracking.
The ultimate oversight of the fracking practice will have huge implications not just for the industry but for consumers as well. The U.S. Department of Energy is predicting that shale-gas will supply 20 percent of all electricity fuel supplies by 2020.
“Get the facts and the science on the table,” says Yoho. “When you see the administration making the same statements, industry needs to get on board.”
Some Reluctance
To be sure, some kickback is occurring not just from the gas drillers but also from utilities that caution against blind faith. For their part, producers don’t want to divulge their trade secrets. They would prefer to use best management techniques, which take into account such things as monitoring and testing protocols as well as the recycling of wastewater.
Utilities, meanwhile, understand the need for a balanced energy portfolio. Jim Rogers, chief executive of Duke Energy, told the Energy Inc. conference that shale-gas “seems too good to be true.” That is, in 2007 the U.S. Energy Information Administration did not list any such gas in its forecast. And today the picture is much different.
At the same time, he is also concerned about the vast amount of water that is required to frack, calling water the “new oil.” Furthermore, natural gas has methane releases associated with it, which have come under scrutiny lately for creating more of a greenhouse gas effect than coal -- a proposition that the natural gas industry says is untrue and that methane dissipates after 20 years.
“If those risks become prohibitive, then we would rely on liquefied natural gas, which creates a foreign dependency,” Rogers adds, as that gas would be imported from countries such as Russia and Libya.
For its part, Duke relies on natural gas to fuel about 15 percent of its generation. Nuclear and coal provide most of the rest. As part of its agreement with the state of North Carolina, it is shutting down some older coal fired plants and replacing them with modern natural gas combined cycle facilities.
It’s also building a supercritical coal unit in the state, as well as a coal gasification facility in Indiana -- moves that had previously received state regulatory approvals. Reporters, meanwhile, toured a coal facility that has been equipped with scrubbers. That’s something Duke had considered to be more cost effective than closing the unit and replacing it with one that runs on natural gas.
“Today, you can’t build a coal plant,” says Randy Zwirn, chief executive of Siemens Energy, at the Energy Inc. conference. “Nuclear is a challenge. Renewables won’t make up more than 5 percent. By default, natural gas is the best option. The only way to serve the expected growth is to build gas plants,” he adds, which is why the company has built a $350 million gas turbine facility in Charlotte.
It’s a well calculated decision by Siemens. But key issues could derail that expectation, namely fracking. That’s why some utilities want to hedge their bets and ensure that their fuel mix is diversified.
EnergyBiz Insider has been named Honorable Mention for Best Online Column by Media Industry News, MIN. Ken Silverstein has also been named one of the Top Economics Journalists by Wall Street Economists.
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energybizinsider@energycentral.com.








Comments
franking concerns - curtailing USA natural gas production
The scientific consensus regarding environmental effect of ‘fracking” is unclear.
On April 16, 2011, House Democrats representing the Energy and Commerce Committee (Henry A. Waxman), Natural Resources Committee (Edward J. Markey), and Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee (Dina DeGette) released a report that stated no scientific data to support this assertion and ignore fundamental principles of toxicology, epidemiology, and risk assessment that would be needed to determine, scientifically, whether hydraulic fracturing chemicals could be harmful to people or the environment. The report's conclusion that "questions about the safety of hydraulic fracturing persist" cannot fairly be drawn from the data presented.
The Duke University researchers found that methane levels were on average 17 times higher in groundwater near fracking sites compared with areas where no gas drilling had occurred, the article stated.
Recently U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu formed a subcommittee of industry, environmental and state regulatory experts to make recommendations to improve the safety and environmental performance of natural gas hydraulic fracturing from shale formations.
The group—part of the Secretary of Energy’s Advisory Board--will review and work to identify steps that can be taken to improve the procedure’s safety. Recommendations are due within 90 days of the group starting its work. Within six months of starting, the group is expected to develop advice on practices for shale extraction to protect human and environmental health.
The electric utility industry has decided to abandon older coal-fired power plants and convert them to natural gas given the assumption that natural gas stay below $6/MMBTU for several years. If shale gas production is curtailed due to fracking then the scenario would be similar to BP Oil Spill moratorium on deep off-shore drilling – rigs moving to foreign countries keeping USA dependent on foreign oil. Greater reliance on LNG would continue on dependency on foreign supplies.
Richard W. Goodwin May 11, 2011
renewables
Siemens invest in renewables generation too. If it is placing more of its money in natural gas, it has done all the calulations it needs. I'm sure if things change and sea of wind and solar can be widely used without any issues, it will make the same investments in those sources as it will be doing with natural gas. It's agnostic in terms of which fuel sources it likes. It's got a profit making motive when it comes to making sure its money is working hard for shareholders. I think that's the "proof" that the one letter writer is asking for.
Fracking Unknowns
Ken, thank you for the article. As the lead analyst in our company's Enterprise Risk Management program, the unknown risks of future environmental regulation and potential fracking limitations is definitely one of our emerging risks.
I agree with Mr. Yoho's approach to disclosures - the more things are kept secret, the more companies and investors will hedge against going with an "all-in" natural gas strategy.
What's worse is if bad, inexact, or unreleased science leads to bad policy.
divine ordination?
Mr. Zwirn's comment "Renewables won't make up more than 5 percent" suggests he has been given special insight. Perhaps he will be willing to share his sources with you and you with the rest of us in a future column.
thumbs up Jack
Good, logical thinking has never stood in the way of either industry or the green movement. Each side would be wise to read your letter.
Fracking
No matter what environmental advocates think they know, there's no way to completely replace fossil-fueled generation with wind and solar. No sensible risk manager would rely on a single source of electricity supply (or even just two or three). Natural gas is going to be part of the nation's energy mix for a while, because the public will not stand for electricity supplies that are variable and uncertain.
For its part, the natural gas industry needs to step away from the time-tested strategies of obfuscating the facts and claiming there'e never been any harm. They need to adopt best practices, monitor wells for release of chemicals and methane, and take a proactive stance toward resolving complaints before local activists shut them down altogether. There's no reason shale gas can't be exploited safely if managements make safety a priority. There's also no reason the issue has to boil down to safe drinking water vs. jobs and energy security. Exploiting shale gas safely is not that expensive and it's not that hard, so long as exploration and production companies decide it's better to do the right thing than to do the expedient thing.
Jack Ellis, Tahoe City, CA
Only 20 years?
The idea that we can free release large quantities of accidental methane into the atmosphere and not worry because it will dissapate in 20 years (becoming CO2) is ludicrous. Methane is an order of magnitude more effective as GHG and having to deal with it for the 20 years is a huge problem. That of course is a rolling 20 years meaning that everyday release occurs starting another 20 year presence for new GHG. We are seeing a fairly steep ramp in extreme weather events from floods to simultaneous droughts in adjacent areas, tornado activity like none ever seen and we should be doubling down on GHG release, not excusing it. We need to be accelerating our movement to renewables which will be permanent non depletable resources. We are playing with severe danger when we play with the climate that has allowed us to prosper grow crops and live in the over populated fashion we have come to expect.
Historic reference for extreme weather assertions?
If I remember correctly, the news reported the tornado issues we saw recently were the worst since some time in the 1930s, so I am not sure about the justification for claiming a steep ramp in extreme weather events like none ever seen. Read "Climate of Extremes" which contains historical references for extreme weather events. Do the present droughts compare to the "Dust Bowl" days?
We also need to get real about renewables--they will never supplant thermal power generation--nuclear and fossil--as round-the-clock renewable power unless we are prepared to carpet the entire US, including its coastal territory, with wind turbines and solar panels combined with huge battery installations. Then you would still need backup supplies from thermal sources for the times when a weather pressure cell stalls rather than moving through.